There are a lot of folks out there suggesting the Mets overpaid, at a record $102 million for five years, for star closer Edwin Diaz. But here’s why they didn’t overpay:
1. Diaz was arguably their most valuable player last year, even at 62 innings, as he was nearly unhittable (0.83 WHIP, 17.1 strikeouts per nine innings), and always willing to do whatever the team wanted.
2. If the Mets hadn’t signed Diaz, their best reliever currently on the roster would have been Drew Smith. So the need was great.
3. At $20.4 million per year, how is that an overpayment when Jacob deGrom who threw 64 ¹/₃ innings (and by the way, not necessarily high-leverage innings in close games, as Diaz pitched) is probably going to get double that, at $40 million a year?
And if you don’t think so, listen to a general manager.
“DeGrom is going to get $40 million,” one GM said, flatly.
DeGrom is fighting a couple of issues, though, and not just the various injuries that have kept him out over the past couple of years. The other issue is a likely limited field of suitors, which is mostly because of his high asking price, but which is partly about the concern related to the injuries in combination with an ask that’s expected to be in the record Max Scherzer $43.3 million ballpark, or more.
The Mets do want him back. But here’s the issue: Exactly who else will want him at these prices?
The Rangers are the most obvious other landing spot, but they have multiple needs and don’t appear ready to win now.
Other possibilities might include the Cubs, Dodgers and Giants, but none of them seems especially likely, considering other needs.
The Rays tried for Freddie Freeman last year and look as if they will consider a big acquisition this winter, as well. One need is a left-handed hitting outfielder. So Brandon Nimmo is a potential fit for Tampa Bay.
While the Rockies like Nimmo, the rare Wyoming product, and may take a look at him, as Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post reported, it’s unlikely they can match the expected asking price. That will be high considering the utter lack of center fielders on the market.
Willson Contreras will be getting the $19.65 million qualifying offer from the Cubs, and he informed them he will be declining it. He should have a big market.
The Astros, who had a trade in place for Contreras at the deadline before Houston owner Jim Crane nixed it, are meeting on Contreras.
Martin Maldonado is a great defensive catcher, and manager Dusty Baker loves Maldonado so much he rarely played Christian Vazquez, so it’s unknown how easily Baker would accept a different starting catcher.
The Guardians are said to have some money to raise their puny payroll from $68 million. They need a catcher and a bat.
The Giants are expected to be very aggressive, and folks who have met with them expect them to try to sign two outfielders and a big starter. The Yankees do see them as the biggest threat to lure sure AL MVP Aaron Judge.
Starting pitchers will be in demand. One market guru said there are 27 spots for starting pitchers — the Mets and Rangers are among teams with multiple rotation openings — and only 11 starters with a 2.5 WAR or better.