For the first time in this unpredictable NFL season, there’s a new name atop the MVP oddsboard. And it’s one that should be plenty familiar to bettors and voters alike.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is dealing as the outright favorite at BetMGM (+225) after another sensational performance on Sunday night, when his late-game heroics willed Kansas City to an epic overtime win over the Titans. That win helped propel Mahomes to pole position to win his second MVP award and first since 2018, when he threw for 50 touchdowns in his first year as a starter.
Just behind him is Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+250), who entered the year as an aggressively priced preseason favorite and hadn’t ceded the top spot through the first half of this crazy NFL season. He’s now tied for the second spot alongside dual-threat star Jalen Hurts, whose stellar play has carried the Eagles to the league’s lone undefeated record entering Week 10.
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2022 NFL MVP odds entering Week 10 (via BetMGM)
| Patrick Mahomes | +225 |
| Josh Allen | +250 |
| Jalen Hurts | +250 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +2000 |
| Joe Burrow | +2500 |
| Geno Smith | +2500 |
| Kirk Cousins | +3500 |
| Justin Herbert | +4000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +6600 |
Sunday’s results weren’t the only impetus for the shift in odds, though. In fact, Allen was still dealing as the slim favorite on Monday, hours after his worst performance of the season. Then news broke about the potential severity of his elbow injury, which threatens to sideline him for this Sunday’s game against the surging Vikings – if not longer.
That was the final straw for oddsmakers to bump Mahomes to the top spot in this market, though there was a case to knock Allen off his MVP perch even without the injury. He’s thrown two interceptions in each of the last two games, and he finished last week’s loss to the rival Jets without a passing touchdown for the first time all season.
His season-long statistical case also pales in comparison to Mahomes, who leads the NFL in passing yards (2,605) and passing touchdowns (21). The latter is especially important: the leader in passing touchdowns has won MVP in six of the last seven seasons, with only Carson Wentz (2017) falling short after a late-season injury killed his MVP chances.
And then there’s Hurts, whose undefeated Eagles have a legitimate shot to win 14 or 15 games behind his dual-threat brilliance. He’s tied with Lamar Jackson in total touchdowns (18) alongside a combined 2,368 yards with just two interceptions, tied for the second-fewest of any qualified starter.
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This feels like a three-man race between those midseason favorites, but even that’s an oversimplification. The aforementioned Jackson has been a one-man wrecking crew for the Ravens, who profile as a second-half darling after holding a double-digit lead in each of the first nine weeks – becoming only the fifth team to do that in the Super Bowl era.
If you’re looking for long shots, consider Dolphins passer Tua Tagovailoa, who ranks fifth in yards per game (282.9) and passing TDs (15) and leads the NFL in QBR (80.2) ahead of Mahomes (75.4) and Allen (74.4). Right behind those two is Seahawks starter Geno Smith (68.0), a shocking addition to this list after one of the most efficient first-half efforts of any quarterback this season.