In today’s 2022 World Cup Preview we’ll take a look at the betting market for the Golden Boot, which is awarded to the player who finishes the tournament with the most goals.
England’s Harry Kane, who won the award at World Cup 2018 with six goals, is the betting favorite at +700, but he’s got plenty of company at the top of the board. France’s Kylian Mbappe, Brazil’s Neymar Jr. and Argentina’s Lionel Messi are all sitting between +800 and 10/1, while Karim Benzema (France) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) are right behind them at 12/1 and 16/1, respectively.
Instead of focusing on the top of the board, we’ll take a few punts at bigger prices and hope to get lucky.
Here are three long shots worth betting to win the Golden Boot.
Gabriel Jesus, Brazil (35/1)
There’s definitely something to be said about avoiding betting on players on deep teams like Brazil, but this number is too good to pass up on Jesus, who now looks likely to start up top for the best team in the field with Richarlison battling an injury.
Although he’s not in the best of form for Arsenal at the moment, Jesus has proven that he can get hot in a hurry and he’s one of the top players in the world at finding space in good attacking areas. Jesus mastered the art playing with the best club team in the world, so he should have plenty of opportunities finishing off plays created by the brilliance of Neymar, Vinicius Jr. and Raphinha.
In a group that features Switzerland, Serbia and Cameroon, Brazil will score early and often in this tournament, which gives Jesus a realistic chance at competing for this award.
Sadio Mane, Senegal (50/1)
Playing in a soft group that includes Qatar, the Netherlands and Ecuador, Senegal is a trendy long-shot pick to make a run at the World Cup. And if the Lions of Teranga are able to make good on the hype, it’ll likely be on the boot of Sadio Mane, who has spent the last five seasons as one of the most effective scorers in Europe.
Mane, now at Bayern Munich, scored 67 goals in the last four Premier League seasons at Liverpool and is rightfully considered one of the best forwards in the world right now. Although he won’t have the same amount of talent around him that he’s used to at Bayern or Liverpool, Mane should have a couple of opportunities (against Qatar and Ecuador) to pad his account before facing tougher opposition in the knockout rounds, should Senegal advance.
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Christian Pulisic, USA (100/1)
Going back to 1998, there have been six Golden Boot winners and five of them made it to at least the semifinals, with Colombia’s James Rodriguez (quarterfinals, 2010) being the lone exception. That means, if you’re going to bet on an American to win the Golden Boot, you’re also banking on the Yanks getting out of the group stage and winning a match or two.
And if they do that, it’ll likely be thanks to Pulisic. While it seems a pretty safe bet that Jesus Ferreira will lead the line for the Yanks, there’s still no questioning that Pulisic is their talisman. The winger is the best player on the team with the ball at his feet and will be relied on as the creative force.
Like the United States, Pulisic is a long shot, but if you’re looking to back an American in this market, the right choice is the obvious one.