Although Denver came away with the win, the Lakers figured some things out down the stretch in Game 1, producing a late run that resulted in a surprising back-door cover (if you got the closing line of +7).
I’m hesitant to re-engage with the main markets on the series (although I included the odds below), but there is one betting angle I’m interested in, based on the superstar big man matchup.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.
Lakers vs. Nuggets Series odds
Series ML: Lakers (+240) vs. Nuggets (-280)
Series Spread: Lakers +1.5 (-108) vs. Nuggets -1.5 (-114)
Lakers vs. Nuggets series predictions
Anthony Davis scored 40 points in Game 1, shooting 14-for-23 from the field (60.9%) while drawing 11 free throw attempts (and making all 11).
Yet, Jokic is still a (-210) favorite to be the series point leader, and we can catch Davis at over 4-to-1 in the same market.
While Jokic dropped 34 points on similar shooting splits, the FanDuel line still doesn’t make sense – Jokic and Davis should have coin-flip odds at the minimum.
For starters, Game 1 wasn’t a fluke. ShotQuality projects how many points a player should score in a game based on the quality of the shot taken and (simultaneously) allowed by the defense.
SQ projected Davis for 33 points in Game 1 and Jokic for 27.
Additionally, Davis has always cooked Jokic in their matchups.
Per NBA.com’s matchup stats, Davis matched up with Jokic for 22 minutes during the regular season, dropping 37 points on 16-for-25 shooting.
Also, Davis shot only 1-for-7 from 3 in those minutes, proving some positive regression may be coming.
Davis matched up with Jokic for nine minutes in Game 1, dropping 20 points on 8-for-10 shooting.
Davis can score on Jokic. He’s consistently proven it.
Conversely, Jokic has had similar results against Davis but similarly doesn’t imply Jokic should be a 2-to-1 favorite.
The Nuggets also expect Jokic to be the offense’s distributor. Jokic will not force a shot, instead opting to find the open shooter or back-door cutter.
Meanwhile, LeBron James handles those duties for the Lakers.
Davis is asked to be a pure scoring presence on offense, which explains why he ended with six more shots than Jokic in Game 1.
Ultimately, Davis can score at a comparable level to Jokic and will likely get more shots.
The biggest worry is that Davis has his typical letdown game, but I’m willing to take that risk in this market at (+410) odds, especially considering my guy has a six-point headstart.
Lakers vs. Nuggets Series Pick
Series Top Points Scorer – Anthony Davis (+410, FanDuel)