It may sound painfully obvious to point out, but we’ll do it anyway.
The Preakness Stakes and Kentucky Derby are very different races and bettors need to adjust their strategies accordingly.
What makes the Kentucky Derby so special is that it features up to 20 champion-level horses.
That means that you can reasonably expect to hear handicappers make cases for nearly a dozen horses to hit the board.
The Derby is chaotic, unpredictable and attracts a ton of casual money.
That’s what makes it the best betting race of the year.
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But now we’re onto the Preakness, the forgotten middle child of the Triple Crown.
Featuring a field of just seven horses after No. 8 First Mission’s scratch on Friday, it’ll be difficult to find value.
That doesn’t mean we can’t try.
To do that we need to size up the horses we are trying to beat, starting with the morning-line favorite No. 3 Mage (8/5), who is coming off a win at the Kentucky Derby as a 15/1 outsider.
We had Mage pegged as one of our long shots in the week leading up to the Derby, but that bet was attractive because of the price and the kind of trip we thought Mage could work out in a 20-horse field that lacked pace on paper.
That wasn’t really the case, as the Derby actually had a pretty fast pace but Mage was still able to click into gear and edge out Two Phil’s to get us to the window.
But now you’re being asked to pay a heavy tax on Mage thanks to his win at Churchill Downs, which makes him an unattractive price.
He may have the best pace figures of any horse in this field, but he’s the only entrant making the quick turnaround from the Derby and his issues breaking from the gate can’t be ignored.
Can he win this thing going away? Sure.
But are his odds good enough to bet that it happens? I don’t think so.
Mage’s main competition in this race will be No. 7 Blazing Sevens (6/1) and Bob Baffert’s No. 1 National Treasure (4/1).
You can expect these two horses, along with Mage, to take in a lion’s share of the money, barring anything extraordinary.
With the narrative setting up that this is a top-heavy field and that three favorites should have their way, that will open up some value on a long shot.
It’s worth noting that, unlike the Kentucky Derby or Belmont Stakes, we don’t see huge prices win the Preakness Stakes.
Master Derby was 23/1 when he won the 1975 Preakness and that is still the biggest price to get to the window in this race.
However, it’s not as if it can’t happen.
In fact, we saw a horse in this range (Rombauer) don the Black-Eyed Susans as a 12/1 outsider in 2021.
What makes No. 6, Perform, the most attractive long shot in this field at 15/1 is his ability to close.
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There shouldn’t be a crazy pace in this race — National Treasure may get out in front thanks to his post position and stick there — but it won’t be something that Perform can’t handle.
But what’s most encouraging here is that Perform put together a terrific victory at the Federico Tesio Stakes in April.
Perform came from behind, weaving in and out of horses to nick that win to give him two trips to the winner’s circle in his last two starts after starting his career on a five-race losing streak.
It seems Perform is an ascending horse and is one of the few long shots that has shown the closing ability needed to challenge the three-headed monster in this field.