Just as we suspected in our Game 1 preview, the Heat continued their series-opening magic with a “shocking” upset over the Celtics to take a 1-0 lead in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals.
The NBA betting market is unified against a similar outcome for Game 2: oddsmakers have Boston priced as nearly a double-digit favorite, and bettors are backing the C’s at more than a 2-to-1 clip in money wagered in the hours ahead of tip-off.
Here’s how we’re betting Friday’s contest, which tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Celtics vs. Heat odds
(via BetMGM)
- Celtics -9.5 (-110), moneyline -450
- Heat +9.5 (-110), moneyline +333
- O/U 214.5 (over -115)
Celtics vs. Heat prediction and analysis
(8:30 p.m. ET on TNT)
It shouldn’t surprise anyone to see the Celtics dealing as gaudy favorites ahead of Game 2, even after falling apart down the stretch of Game 1.
After all, Boston was an overwhelming favorite to advance entering this series and has shown a resilient streak with its back against the wall.
Still, are we supposed to just pretend what we saw on Wednesday night doesn’t matter?
And are we so sure that it isn’t replicable?
Miami won Game 1 with a virtually identical formula to what we’ve seen all postseason long: Jimmy Butler led the way with 35 points and another defensive masterclass, the Heat’s bevy of shooters combined to hit 16 of their 31 attempts from deep (51.6%), and the team’s tenacious defense forced 15 Boston miscues and turned it into 22 points on the other end.
Wednesday’s win featured more balance than we’re used to from Miami’s offense, which saw six players score at least 15 points with five doing so on at least 50% efficiency.
The lone exception was Butler (48%), whose 31.5 points per game rank fourth this postseason and first among players still in the conference finals.
For all he’s done offensively, his defense remains the biggest challenge for the Celtics to overcome.
In Game 1, Butler held star scorer Jayson Tatum – who was coming off a 51-point masterpiece in Game 7 against the 76ers – to just three points on 1-of-5 shooting across nearly 45 possessions.
He also limited co-star Jaylen Brown to two points on 1-of-3 shooting across 15 possessions.
His defense halted the Celtics’ attack down the stretch, and his six steals helped spark Miami’s offense in transition.
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And as coach Erik Spoelstra highlighted after the game, Butler’s immeasurable “settling effect” clearly resonated with his teammates, who continue to show up in clutch moments this postseason.
The same can’t be said for Boston, which is officially staring down a complacency problem after years of fumbling away winnable opportunities.
Dating back to last postseason, the Celtics are now 2-5 against the spread when laying at least eight points in a playoff game, and they’ve lost four straight outright in that spot.
Miami will have its work cut out to score another upset victory, though the evidence is overwhelming at this point that any Spoelstra-led team will be a tough out in any playoff contest.
The C’s will surely have an answer in Game 2, but I’d be shocked if the Heat aren’t within striking distance in the end.
Celtics vs. Heat pick
- Heat +9.5 (-110 BetMGM)