I think it’s time to shut the door on taking the Under with these low-total prime-time games.
The trend is assuredly dead as the Over went 3-1 last week and 3-0 in the one prior.
Thursday’s unsavory matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders features another pair of scuffling teams nursing key injuries.
Once again, it might be hard to imagine how any offense will be produced with Easton Stick and Aidan O’Connell going head-to-head.
Things were bad enough for Los Angeles before Justin Herbert sustained his season-ending finger fracture.
Stick’s relief for Herbert against the Broncos made for two fumbles and a 78.3 passer rating in the 24-7 defeat.
Now adjusting to his new job on short rest, he’ll head into Las Vegas against a Raiders team off a 3-0 loss to Minnesota — the sixth time this score has happened in the Super Bowl era.
O’Connell was sacked four times and turnovers proved to be the difference.
That theme should continue on both sides of Thursday’s game, but teams that have suffered a shutout are profitable in their next home game at 29-13-3 (69 percent) against the spread (ATS) since 2015.
And since moving to Las Vegas in 2020, the Raiders own the second-best ATS record in night home games behind the Eagles at 7-3.
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With Josh Jacobs nursing a quad injury and questionable to play, O’Connell will continue peppering Davante Adams with targets.
Adams hasn’t been able to make much out of the 10-plus target average from O’Connell in the past four games, but things should be optimal against the Chargers’ fourth-worst secondary in the league.
The Raiders are a conservative offense, but O’Connell is easing his way into more confidence attempting 35.3 throws the last three weeks.
Stream the game live on Thursday night on Amazon Prime Video
Beyond Adams, the Vegas receiving corps is competent enough to prosper against the most generous unit in yards after catch allowed.
Given this edge along with a chaotic Chargers organization that has too much to straighten out on a short week, I’m steering clear of the total bait and seizing the dangling value on Las Vegas.
The Play: Raiders -3 (-104, FanDuel)