The Arnold Palmer Invitational kicks off Thursday in Orlando. It’s the PGA Tour’s fourth signature event of the season and, much like we saw at last month’s Genesis Invitational, the field is limited.
Only 69 golfers are set to tee it up this week, but there is still a cut. The top 50 and ties plus anyone within 10 strokes of the lead will move on to play the weekend.
Bay Hill Club and Lodge, also known as Arnie’s Place, is a favorite stop on the PGA Tour — for fans, but presents many challenges for the players.
It’s been one of the top 10 toughest courses in each of the last five years. The course is an absolute brute, measuring 7,466 yards. It’s a par 72 that features thick Bermuda Grass rough and firm greens.
Over the last five years, we’ve seen some minor changes to the course. The fairways are a bit wider, which does help the longer hitters off the tee.
It’s difficult to stop the ball on the green when you are hitting approach shots from the rough, so a combination of distance and accuracy off the tee is necessary. The fairways are 32 yards wide on average, which is close to what we typically see on the PGA Tour.
As with most Florida courses, this one is exposed to the elements and features water hazards on half of the 18 holes. Birdies can be made, but there will be a lot of big numbers on the holes with hazards.
Even though the greens are large (7,500 square feet), last year’s field only hit them in regulation at a 56% clip. That’s due to a combination of longer approach shots (30% will come from more than 200 yards), firm greens and tricky rough.
Much like major championship golf, this week will test all aspects of a golfer’s game. It will expose weaknesses, so players who are solid all-around should have an advantage over the rest of the field.
It’s also worth noting that Bay Hill has the third-most predictive course history on the PGA Tour, trailing only Augusta National and Riviera Country Club. This means golfers with good course history tend to play well here each year.
I have four bets on my card this week: two outrights and two placements.
Arnold Palmer Invitational best bets
Odds via FanDuel unless otherwise noted
Scottie Scheffler to win (+650, can boost up to +950 on DraftKings)
If you have DraftKings available, I highly recommend using their +350 outright boost. I used it on Scheffler, as we get the best golfer in the world up to +950 at an event he’s won and finished fourth at over the last two years.
Over the last 12 months, Scheffler is first in this field in ball striking, birdie-or-better percentage, bogey avoidance, strokes gained per round in Florida and strokes gained per round on difficult par-72 courses.
He is hitting the ball as well as prime Tiger Woods. If he putts decently, he’s likely going to win the tournament.
I usually don’t bet on favorites, but I couldn’t make an argument against Scheffler this week.
Cameron Young to win (+2800)
I ended up splitting this bet into two separate wagers.
I put half a unit on Young to win at +2800 and half a unit on the winner without Scheffler, McIlroy and Hovland (FanDuel at +1800).
For this bet, you essentially take those three players off the leaderboard. Whoever has the best score other than those three wins. I did this just in case we get a Scheffler win and a Young second-place finish.
Young finished T-4 at the Cognizant Classic last week and gained in all four of the strokes gained categories. Prior to that, he gained 7.5 strokes ball-striking at the Genesis and 5.4 at the WM Phoenix Open.
His game is trending in the right direction as he’s finished in the top 15 at this event each of the last two years.
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Viktor Hovland top-5 finish (+360)
When betting a +650 favorite, it’s hard to justify many more outrights because you start to spread yourself too thin. Rather than betting on Hovland to win this week, I am betting on him to finish in the top five at +350 odds.
He’s second in this field in strokes gained per round in Florida over the last three years and has finished T-10 and T-2 at this event the last two years.
He’s one of the best drivers in the world, he’s an excellent mid- and long-iron player, and he plays some of his best golf on difficult courses.
Even though he hasn’t gotten off to a blazing start this year, this is an event where he should shine.
Adam Scott top-10 finish (+400)
Scott has quietly been on a tear over the last three months. He’s played in seven events worldwide and has yet to finish outside of the top 20.
During that stretch, he has five top-10 finishes. More importantly, his ball striking is starting to look like that of Scott in his prime; he has gained more than 14 strokes ball-striking in his last four events.
He has always had a tidy short game and his putter has become one of his best weapons over the last couple of years.
I like the way his game is trending and that he’s made six of his last seven cuts at this event.