Israel is finally moving to put an end to Hamas: On Monday, it began its long-awaited military operation in Rafah, after dismissing a claim that the terror group had accepted a cease-fire deal as a ruse.
Hamas’ political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, announced that his group had agreed to a deal brokered by Egypt and Qatar, yet Israel’s war cabinet said Jerusalem was pushing ahead with its Rafah plan anyway, calling the cease-fire proposal “far from Israel’s obligatory demands.”
Hamas was surely stalling. Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ military commander in Gaza, knew an Israeli Defense Forces invasion of Rafah was imminent, and must’ve been trying to buy time to get himself and his leadership out of Dodge, and/or simply delay the inevitable: the fall of Rafah.
Indeed, Hamas is clearly in trouble. Its last bastion of defense in Gaza is now squarely in the sights of the IDF.
Despite President Biden’s repeated efforts to publicly deter Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from destroying Hamas in Rafah, Israel is not going to agree to any cease-fire that allows Hamas to survive to fight another day.
Bibi continues to vow he’ll pursue Hamas until it’s destroyed, no matter what — with or without a deal.
Hamas, meanwhile, had reportedly claimed the United States, alongside Egypt, would guarantee Israel would permanently withdraw from all of Gaza as part of the cease-fire and that Israel ostensibly said it would stand down after the return of all of the surviving hostages.
Neither are plausible.
Essentially, Hamas wants to go back in time to Oct. 6 and call it a war.
Again, hostages or not, Israel is not going to do that.
Hamas, as a military threat to Israel, will be destroyed and Rafah ultimately seized by the IDF.
And Sinwar, Haniyeh and even their benefactor, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, all know that.
Netanyahu shutting down Qatari-owned Al Jazeera on Sunday was also notable from a battlefield-information standpoint.
The Israeli Prime Minister declared that it was “time to remove the Hamas mouthpiece from our country.”
Moreover, Biden’s decision to place a “hold” on US ammunition shipments to Israel last week was highly significant and foretelling. It’s strong evidence the White House, too, knew Israel was set to act.
Then came the IDF’s order telling 100,000 Palestinians in eastern Rafah to evacuate to nearby Muwasi.
The limited 100,000 figure is significant.
It suggests the IDF is likely to take a sector-by-sector ground and air approach in Rafah, replicating the divide-and-conquer strategy it has deployed since Oct. 7.
By piecemealing its ground operations, Israel is likely attempting to temper or forestall any adverse Biden administration response, while systematically accomplishing its goals.
Biden has warned of consequences for Israel if the IDF begins operations in Rafah absent adequate plans to safeguard Palestinian civilians.
Yet, Israel is determined to defeat Hamas with or without the White House’s support; it has no choice.
Not just to wipe out the remaining Hamas cadres but because Rafah, which borders Egypt, is key to Hamas’ weapons-smuggling.
And make no mistake: The IDF knows how to prosecute this battle in ways that not only to assure victory but also minimizes civilian casualties — despite the enormous difficulty of fighting in an urban setting with more than 1 million residents among whom Hamas has fighters have embedded (if they’re not hiding in tunnels).
By needlessly emboldening Sinwar at the negotiating table in Cairo, Biden, in part, forced Israel’s action in Rafah as the only means of Jerusalem ending this phase of its wider war with Iran.
Publicly threatening Israel with sanctions on IDF units, increasingly criticizing Jerusalem’s kinetic war on Hamas and having Democrats in general — including Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) — calling for Netanyahu’s ouster are all proving self-defeating, in terms of Hamas and Iran.
Those efforts are now boomeranging on Biden.
Sinwar and Khamenei, of course are more than willing to shed more Palestinian (and, if possible, Israeli) blood to battle the Jewish state.
Rafah, consequently, is caught in the crosshairs of a perfect storm of Sinwar, Khamenei and Biden’s making.
Biden needs to wake up and read the room: Israel is not our enemy; Hamas and Iran are.
Sinwar wants his Götterdämmerung-like moment.
Khamenei views Gaza as one more front in which to try to destroy Israel.
And Israel views its war against Hamas as just the beginning phase of its existential war with Iran.
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.