The last time the Islanders and Rangers met, it was the Isles who were in a must-win spot.
Losers of three in a row and four of their first six games on the season, Lane Lambert’s Islanders had to take advantage of a great scheduling spot against their rivals. The Rangers had just played the Avalanche the night before and were starting their back-up goalie, Jaroslav Halak, against an Isles team that had two days off to prepare for the Blueshirts.
The Isles would win, 3-0, to begin a five-game winning streak.
On Tuesday night, the roles are reversed. While the Islanders have settled into the NHL season with an 8-5 record and are coming off a come-from-behind win against the Flames on Monday night, the Rangers have sputtered and now find themselves in the midst of a 3-3-3 stretch.
Despite the cold streak, the Blueshirts are robust -188 favorites at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Tuesday night. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. and the game can be streamed on ESPN+.
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Islanders vs. Rangers odds
- Islanders: +152
- Rangers: -188
- Over/Under: 6
Islanders vs. Rangers prediction
There is plenty of logic to bookmakers installing the Rangers as sizable favorites over the Isles despite the teams heading in opposite directions right now. The Blueshirts are at home, have the rest advantage and will start their all-world goaltender, while the Islanders will sit theirs in favor of Semyon Varlamov.
Igor Shesterkin gives the Rangers a big edge in the blue paint, but the rest of the tale of the tape suggests this matchup is closer than the odds suggest.
For one, the Isles have been terrific at 5-on-5. The Islanders rank third in goals per 60 minutes at even strength and skate into MSG with the fifth-best 5-on-5 goal differential. Skeptics will point to the Isles’ average expected goals rate and high-danger scoring chance percentage as a signal for regression, but they’ve improved those numbers since their 2-4 start. Over their last seven contests, the Isles own a 52.3% xG rate and a 51.7% high-danger chance share. Those numbers will play with Sorokin and Varlamov in net.
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As for the Rangers, they’re dealing with the inverse of what we saw last season when they were winning despite some pedestrian peripheral metrics. The Rangers rank seventh in the NHL in expected goals rate and eighth in high-danger chance percentage, but they’re 25th in 5-on-5 goal differential and 25th in goals per 60 at even strength. Some positive regression should come for the Blueshirts, but scoring at 5-on-5 was an issue for this team last season, only this time they don’t have a top-5 power play to bail them out.
There’s no arguing that the Rangers should be considerable favorites over the Islanders on Tuesday night, but this number – which implies the Isles have roughly a 39.7% chance of winning – is a bit rich considering the form of the underdogs.
Rangers vs. Islanders pick
Islanders +152 (FanDuel)